The Japanese have the best name for a new relevant demographic
"oyayubizoku," clan of the thumb. This is far more evocative than "digital
natives." Whatever they're called, people under 30 are redefining
mobility: who is supposed to say (or otherwise convey) what message to whom, in what contexts, with
what expectations in return is being defined in fascinating ways. I'm reminded of the need
for a new greeting at the introduction of the telephone, as people of manners were not
supposed to speak to someone unless they had been introduced. Many languages differentiate
between telephonic greetings and spoken ones ("bonjour" vs. "allo" in French), but before
"hello" was carried over, Alexander Graham Bell preferred "ahoy" as the English-language
telephone greeting.

The distinction between telephones and PCs is getting fuzzier every
year and the iPhone presents a clear case in point: running a Unix variant,
it can be spoken at, but performs best moving and manipulating images and data. Mobile
phones, ultra-mobile PCs (UMPCs), gaming devices including Nokia's N-Gage, handheld PCs,
televisions, and other devices (such as standalone GPS trackers) will continue to converge.

Note that the success of this sector depends heavily on commercialization of the power
alternatives listed above. GPS phones are estimated to be a $30 billion segment next year. Some
of the most promising applications involve the combination of mobility and convenience,
location awareness, and social networking: as Google enters the phone market, expect to see
some variation on the Dodgeball service it acquired in 2005. Being able to visualize a list
of friends, in their current physical locations, in order to coordinate seems like a truly
harmonic convergence of capabilities.

Television over mobile handsets is estimated to reach over 100 million
users by 2009, and the number should soar further in conjunction with the 2010 World Cup.
Expect to see spirited competition among content owners like News Corp, handset
manufacturers, network equipment firms (including heavyweights Qualcomm, Nokia, and
potentially Intel), and carriers such as Vodaphone and T-Mobile. Finally, given that [lots
of] advertising is involved, expect something unexpected from Google. There's little
question as to demand, particularly after seeing adoption in Japan and Korea, but allocating
the money may prove to be difficult.