Economy Slams Software Makers - Maybe
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The financial news sliding into 2008 isn't looking rosy for tech companies. The U.S. economists at Goldman Sachs say they believe the economy has tumbled into a recession. On that note, analysts have downgraded earnings outlooks for a handful of software companies that have, in large part, been on the upswing. Goldman Sachs said in a research note Tuesday that it is lowering revenue and earnings estimates by between 1 and 2 percent on average for software industry stalwarts and newcomers alike, including: BEA Systems, Informatica, Microsoft, McAfee, Parametric, RightNow Technologies, SAP and Salesforce.com. Also on the hit list: Adobe, BMC, CA, Macrovision, Red Hat, Secure Computing, Symantec and Tibco Software. Goldman said it expects zero growth in the first and third quarters this year. "With software a more back-end-loaded sale by quarter and year, first half estimates are likely at risk," wrote Sarah Friar, along with several other Goldman Sachs analysts in the Jan. 22 note. "On the downside, a slowing U.S. economy may spread overseas, removing a key tailwind for the group. On the upside, the recent sell-off across the sector may be pricing in much of the risk." Goldman Sach's report comes the same day that the biggest software company on the hit list - Microsoft - said it expects to report a sharp rise in its quarterly profit this week - boosted by a surge in computer sales and a demand for its Windows operating system and Office software. SAP, which reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2007 earnings Sept. 30, said last week it expects fourth-quarter software revenues to be about 1.41 billion euros for quarter - an increase of about 14 percent. SAP said full-year 2007 software revenues are expected to be up by about 13 percent, to 3.40 billion euros, versus 3 billion euros in 2006. Here's hoping the trend continues in 2008. |
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