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Tuesday, February 24, 2009 10:17 PM/EST

Microsoft CEO Scoffs at Mac Share Gains

News Analysis. What? You expected Steve Ballmer to speak affectionately about Apple?

But it's what Steve said about marketing that showed just how far apart is his thinking from the other Steve, as in Jobs, Apple's CEO.

arrow.gifGOT A TIP OR RUMOR?

First some context. Twice a year, Microsoft gives Wall Street the big bear hug—during a July gathering on the Redmond campus and during Winter in New York. Steve gave his Wall Street spiel earlier today, offering dire predictions about the global economic crisis.

Steve presented the slide below, as part of his 16-deck presentation. It's not surprising to see whom Microsoft lables as its biggest competitor: Software pirates.

ballmermacs.png

I would put the pirates third. Microsoft's bigger competitor is itself. Older Windows versions are good enough for most people. So, Windows XP competes with Vista, in that scenario. Steve told financial analysts, referring to the slide:

Windows license, number one market share. Number two market share goes to Windows pirated, or unlicensed. That's a competitor that's tough to beat, they've got a good price and a heck of a product, but we're working on it. Linux, you could see on the slide, and Apple has certainly increased its share somewhat.

Steve has a surprising view of the computing universe to put Linux before Apple. Most certainly, Linux's larger server share puts it overall ahead of Mac OS. But Steve wasn't talking about server here, but Windows client. So why rank Apple behind Linux? It's like he anticipated that very question from the audience, because he continued:

I think depending on how you look at it, Apple has probably increased its market share over the last year or so by a point or more. And a point of market share on a number that's about 300 million is interesting. It's an interesting amount of market share, while not necessarily being as dramatic as people would think, but we're very focused in on both Apple as a competitor, and Linux as a competitor.

That's a put down, by the way, similar to Steve's Windows Mobile-to-iPhone comparison. The context of "one point or more" against 300 million PCs shipped is obvious: Apple is just a puny. By my reckoning, Apple shipped 9.91 million Macs in 2008. The corrected number of PCs shipped worldwide in 2008, according to IDC: 297.2 million.

Microsoft's CEO isn't just slapping down Apple. While seemingly dismissing Apple, he also calls the company a competitor. No question, Apple share gains come take away Windows share, and they're substantial enough. Apple's U.S. PC marketshare was 7,2 percent in fourth quarter, down from 9.1 percent in third quarter, according to IDC. The sequential decline foreshadows some future sales troubles for Apple. Maybe, but marketshare is way up from even just a few years ago. Apple's U.S. marketshare rose from 3.3 percent in 2004 to 7.7 percent in 2008, says IDC.

Steve rightly observes competitive changes coming from phone-based operating systems, but strangely he doesn't include Apple:

I assume we're going to see Android-based, Linux-based laptops, in addition to phones. We'll see Google more as a competitor in the desktop operating system business than we ever have before. The seams between what's a phone operating system and a PC operating system will change, and so we have ramped the investment in the client operating system.

That's an astute observation and right direction for investment. Apple is there already, though, with close alignment between Mac OS X on the desktop and mobile derivative for iPhone.

What shocked me most: Steve's attitude about the value of marketing. He assigns little value to marketing, in stark comparison to Apple. Steve told financial analysts:

It was this meeting two years ago, maybe three years ago, I got a big push from investors, you've got to go spend more money, spend more money, buy a lot of ads. And at the time I said, no, no, no, no, we don't want to do that, that wouldn't make sense. Well, in the last year or so we've started running much more significant advertising campaigns around Windows, which I did wind up agreeing was necessary, but it's not something that is helpful, that is it's an investment area.

Advertising is "not something that is helpful?" I would argue that Apple's brand marketing, particularly through advertising and retail stores, is the foundation for those Mac share gains of "a point or more."

I've often wondered why there is so little Microsoft advertising. Could the chief executive be explanation? Perhaps bean counters staring down from monopolistic heights don't recognize the value of advertising. If the measurement is share, yeah advertising won't do much for a company with 90 percent marketshare in a product segment. But the value of building a brand is incalculable. It doesn't measure in shekels. If Microsoft advertised more, in more aspirational fashion, perhaps the company would have expanded beyond Office and Windows into faster-growing product categories.

Apple successfully launched three new products during this decade: iPod, iTunes and iPhone—and none are dependent on the core Mac business. The company heavily advertised all three products, particularly television. How many new Microsoft businesses were as so successful?

[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com.]

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Comments (50)

Philip :

Apple is a completely separate ecosystem from Microsoft's. Microsoft's most valuable asset are OEMs and they are looking at Apple with great envy. Apple is free to innovate while they are shackled to the sleeping giant with it's nineties era technology. Linux is what could set them free and Microsoft knows that. Just imagine a ThinkPad with custom built Linux that boots under 15 seconds and has all the eye candy. I took ThinkPad as an example since it is already differentiated from most laptops, but right now it's just hardware that differentiates it. Any manufacturer could re-design and customize Linux to create a unique experience. It's inevitable and Microsoft knows it.

Christian Gross :

Wow Steve is so out of touch...

He brags how Microsoft spends the most on R&D. Fair enough good one Steve.... But there is another side to this. Is Microsoft growing the fastest? Ooops NOT! Microsoft spends the most and grows the slowest in the bunch.

What does that say? WASTE WASTE WASTE!

So here is a suggestion Steve if you are going to brag that you spend the most on R&D then show that you grow the most as well.

Alan :

Actually I thought he was saying one point increase in market share for Apple over such a large market was a decent increase and equates to a heck of a lot more people macs sold. Rather than a put down I would interpret him describing it as "interesting" as respect to that increase. I mean I don't see what part of the quote suggests it's a put down?

You also forgot about 9 million Macs probably running a Boot Camp installation of Windows.

aqua Fyre :

Good Point Christian.

Sreve Ballmer raving about how much money MS spend on R&D is like an overly confindent general showing off his heavy artillery to the enemy.

Not only do they end up knowing the calibre and location of each weapon; they also end up knowing which direction those guns are pointed.

So when the moment comes, all they have to do is sneak up behind them and knock them out...

Aqua Fyre

Vanfruniken :

An quality, obviously forgotten in Steve Ballmer's exposé, is software quality/reliability, something that only seems to matter in the Linux and Apple worlds.

How long will the consumer remain content with "good enough"?
How long will consumers put up with viruses, botnets etc., that continue to be inflicted in an "almost" criminal way onto them.
["almost" quoted here because ultimately it is the, consumer's *choice* (much touted by Microsoft --and unfortunately, also the Linux world)]

ppgreat :

This slide says it all about the culture at Microsoft. Bloated, overfilled, not easy to look at, geared toward the enterprise.

Alan Smith :

Aqua Smith,
You made me laugh so hard, I almost cried. What a bunch of baloney. MS is copying Apple in everything and coming up short. They don't even make good copies. MS has 5 years as a company left, then it will fade into oblivion like IBM.

I am not an Apple fanboy. I use both XP and OS X on a daily basis. But I realize quality versus good enough.

Jon :

As a desktop Linux user I have to say Linux has more share than people realize. My machine is a Dell laptop, that came with XP. It still has XP on it because I dual boot, but I haven't used Windows on it in over a month.

The funny thing is I am sure this machine is counted as a Windows machine, but not as a Linux machine. Measuring Linux is pretty tough, I downloaded it for free and used the same disk for a few installs, how do you count that? For this reason I think Linux share is grossly understated, but it is almost impossible to accurately gauge.

Also, look at Netbooks, Linux is doing well there with accounts that 1 in every 3 dell minibooks is sold with Ubuntu. Microsoft has to be scared there. Overseas Linux is gaining momentum as well.

That "Windows Unlicensed" product is crap, just like "Windows Licensed".

jbelkin :

Advertising is too late for MS as it's now the low cost solution for personal computers.

It's the OS you "get" when you buy a computer for $299 or $499, nothing more. That's why out of 300 million PC's out there, how many outside of corporations upgraded to Vista? Who pay 50% of the price of a computer for its OS?

That's why Apple (NPD data) has 67% of the $1k+ personal computer market at retail. When people are willing to spend more on a PC at retail, 67% choose a Mac ... or in other words, MS's retail market shre for $1k+ computers has fallen from 98% to 34% in about 8 years.

That's why netbooks don't help WIN's cause because after pushing down the "acceptable" price for a Pc from $1,500 to $500, it's now down to $299. Not a very good trend for MS because basically when MS's OEM take on each computer is dropping if they want to maintain market share ... meanwhile, Apple doesn't have to grow by much as each OS sale is $129 or when bundled with a computer, about $1,500 to $2,000 in revenue.

Bottom line - when consumers have a choice, they seldom CHOOSE MS unless it's the low cost provider ... just look at the Zune, in order not to lose too much money, it's priced about the same as the iPod ... market share after THREE years - 3% ... or worse, MSN Search - FREE and yet less than 8% of consumers choose it including MS throwing a $1 BILLION dollars into its promotion including giving away money by buying from its search results.

MS is still a powerhouse in enterprise but to consumers, it's the $.99 store of technology ... thanks to the lack of marketing but poisoning their name with 10 years of linking to viruses and malware and trojans and the red ring of death for XBox does not help.

Philip :

Exactly Jon, my ThinkPad still has an XP sticker but no trace of XP any more. That's one OEM license sold for MS. And I know several more cases.

Harvey :

Sometimes I think Ballmer might be secretly working for Apple :-)

The whole "market share" argument is superficially important, but actually an empty point. Apple is much more profitable and has more value per point of market share than MS.
Apple has a market capitalization of $88 Billion on revenues of $33 Billion. Microsoft has a market capitalization of $170 Billion on revenues of $62 Billion.
Now that looks a lot different from "market share" numbers.

Yeah yeah we know 2009 is the year of Linux! Just like every other year in the last decade. Try running Solidworks or other polished titles like Photoshop. Yeah you are likely to rattle off titles that you say are the equivalent but no....I tried Linux for a year (Mint, Ubuntu, and Fedora) and all them have a ham radio feel when you get beyond the interface (which is admittedly nice). I always go back to a Mac + PC.

Anonymous Coward :

"Microsoft lables"

Labels. Does your mac not have spell check?

Reality Check :

I always love seeing the Linux and Apple fans giving the same dire predictions each year, and each year those predictions fail to come true - it's like reading headlines from the National Enquirer...

As long as the Apple o/s is tied to the hardware, their chances of overthrowing the evil MSFT empire are pretty slim; most people, and large businesses if Apple ever decides to actively compete in that space, are not going to make the investment to switch over - and don't bother posting the list of large business you "personally" are aware of that have already made the switch, it's not a significant number and does not reflect the market as a whole.

Linux is definately positioned to eat into the MSFT corporate space, which is why MSFT sees them as a more direct competitor than Apple. The achilles heel forLinux is that when you license from MSFT your support is included. If you decide to run Linux, there's a good chance that your IT expenses for support (in-house or outsourced/provided) will eat into any gains you experienced from using a "free" software. And Linux will not likely appeal to retail consumers in any great numbers. Remember, most users just want it to work, they don't have the savvy or desire to customise their o/s, or hassle with trying to get a simple peice of software working with one of possible thousands of Linux builds. I know you all know of a build that is "just as easy to use" as Windows or a Mac, but it really isn't - you just don't realize that you are relying on skills that most people don't have when you use the software (ie. Windows users don't often know that you can just buy a laptop and turn it on and it works, they just think the computer setup process is normal until they boot up a Mac for the first time).

And finally, just because MSFT incorporates features in it's OS that were originally developed as third party apps for Windows (or Xerox, there, I said it), and were subsequently adopted by Apple, doesn't mean they're copying Apple! Seriously, Apple "steals" just as much of it's "innovation" as anybody else, and Steve Jobs will not rise from the dead 3 days after he passes on from his mortal husk...

GP :

Yes, Microsoft is doing great. Just try Vista.

GP :

If Microsoft is so great, how do you explain Vista, Mista?

Steven :

I think that MS would do well to adopt a less confrontational style. Somehow you just know that there's no place to go but down for that sort of ugly smugness. Bill Gates had so much more grace and dignity than this twit. Anyhow, I think that things are not looking great for MS, with Linux, Apple and Google all poised to take market share from them. Their only serious hope is to come up with a decent operating system. I personally have grown tired of the long long wait to do better than XP. Personally, I haven't got the patience for Linux. It's free, but my time isn't. I've gone with the new Macbook and, after being in the MS world since 1988, I feel like I've found Jesus. I think I was operating with some old view of Apple. What brought me to the "dark side" is a broken notebook computer. I frankly couldn't believe how much PC notebook computers have declined in real quality. Sure they're cheap, but those things are bloody toxic waste in a box. There's been a long race to the bottom in the PC notebook world. So, not only did I find Apple has a brilliant OS, their hardware matches the operating system in quality. For me it was a no brainer. Apple has been incrementally improving their product, and PC notebooks have been devolving into ever cheaper pieces of crap. Stir in Vista and you've got a mess that no advertising campaign can fix.

Shawn :

Reality Check, I think you need to do a reality check on your theory about "free" Microsoft support. At MOST you'll get a little help with installation problems from MS (and it's probably slower and less effective than you'd get from the appropriate Linux mailing list), but for anything beyond that, you're paying. Lots. Per incident.

The same applies to the old "have someone to sue" theory, that PHBs are happier with Microsoft software because if they have trouble, they'll have someone to sue. But the news is curiously empty of stories about people filing, much less winning, damages from Microsoft. Is that because their software never screws up? Hardly.

Linux may or may not make sense for a given company, but the "free MS support" and "MS deep pockets to cover problems" theories are complete hokum.

Ted Landry :

Microsoft has always been terrified of Apple, and Ballmer's negligence in reporting that Apple has now taken away 7% of Windows share in the last two years shows just how scared he has become.

Linux share is stagnant, hovering around .87% of the desktop, so Ballmer is purposely trying to deflect the real enemy to Microsoft's fading power, which is Apple.

Now that Macs are cheaper to buy, install & maintain than Windows based PCs, Microsoft has a tough road ahead. Added that Apple is now wealthier than Microsoft doesn't bode well for Ballmer's future.

---

malignedtruth :

Twenty folks in my Linux users group help businesses, schools, and individual to switch/convert to one of the hundreds of Linux and BSD OSes.

Our count is above several thousands, since 1996.
Reasons for switching include the FREEdom of Open Source, OS reliability, ability to multi-task, plethora of applications, immunity to the million Microsoft virus/Trojans/mal-bots and exploits.

Happy to service Microsoft users, for the big bucks,
we advocate the savings afforded by the 'Nixes.

Instead of having to become a Microsoft Technician on their own computers, and to avoid the headaches of constant system maintenance on Microsoft Windows systems, most folks we meet embrace the control, ease and power of the 'Nixes.

Last weekend, we helped convert over 250 Amateur Radio "HAMs" to Linux Mint, Redhat Fedora 10, or Puppy Linux.

The reasons that most gave for converting include some HAM applications that are great in Linux, like FLDigi, and it works in Live mode, and, installs in 20 minutes, on minimal hardware, like old Pentium II computers with 128MB of RAM.

Microsoft code is ancient, slow, cumbersome, and really only understood by crackers, virus writers, and Microsoft's other enemies.

Hey, it's your FREE choice to use the competent and secure 'Nixes! Distrowatch.com is a good start.

Libertarian :

Roborino, you are somewhat right about certain, specific titles like Photoshop, or certain games. My wife uses CS3 daily, and GIMP simply can't do the trick. On the other hand, I have no such requirement, and therefore for me, to run an OS that requires I pay for everything does not make sense. I use Linux, and can do everything I want to do.
Ultimately it is about choice - having a choice. You and my wife choose Windows, that's good for you. I choose Linux.
My issue is the mentality of anti choice, and that's my biggest beef with M$. It doesn't matter if theirs is the best OS or not. It's their desire to remove my freedom to choose that toasts my oats. They did it to DR DOS, GEOS, and IBM OS/2. More importantly, they did it using bullying and coercion, as opposed to open market competition. They continue to do the same with their so-called "open standards", like OOXML and .net.
Ultimately, they do not see their customers as valued partners, but rather as an exploitable resource, and they will always sacrifice customer needs for shareholder value.

Sean :

Thanks Balmer.

I shorted your stock at $35. With your help I should see $10 soon enough.

Irene King :

Libertarian makes an excellent point. I use Mac at home because I can make the choices I want for my needs, but I can still boot into Windows if I want. On the other hand, my enterprise uses Windows because they have allowed themselves to be caught up in the ever-degrading spiral of MSFT BS. However, they put their foot down and have absolutely refused to move to Vista or Office 07 because of the hardware expense, the ridiculous costs of the licensing, the compatibility issues with pre-existing Windows applications (!!!) and the horrific cost of retraining everyone on the new Office interface. They just said "No." Or more accurately, "HELL NO." So we have XP and Office 2003, and are doing okay. And now with SAAS and other products out there at a cheaper cost (of licensing, enterprise purchasing, and training), enterprises with cojones will do their own thing and give Steve-o B. the finger.

I think that's what MSFT has run into more and more. By deciding to change the rules to fit in its personal view of the computer world, they started the march to their own death. People simply got tired of being led around by the nostrils.

eBry :

Another important perspective to take is the OS market share among the Internet community.

In the following report, http://marketshare.hitslink.com/os-market-share.aspx?qprid=9 the iPhone takes already 0.48% of the market share and the Mac is close to 10%...

Most of you people are just knit-picking haters!

Mikums :

Such harsh words steve.
Picking nits is what we do.
Go knit some picks if you feel frustrated.
I hear it is quite cathartic.

Daoman :

In their own unique ways, they're both jerks.

roddog :

GP,

I have run Vista for a year without issue. So Vista does me right mista. The whole PC vs. Mac thing is quite easy to summarize. Those who don't understand the inner workings of a computer choose a Mac because "it just works" and when it doesn't "just work" they go to the Mac store to either buy a new one or have the Magic Mac Person fix it up so "it just works" again. The PC user is computer savvy can deal effectively with hardware and software interaction and likes to have upgrade options they can institute themselves. The Mac person waits for Apple to tell them when to buy the next shiny thing they are producing. Its really a measure of intelligence and inquistiveness, PC owners have both and Mac owners do not. Mac's gain the larger share of the $1K+ market say nothing other than the computer illiterate purchaser is not sophisticated enough to understand they are buying a extremely over priced "shiny thing" with little to no upgradability and that outside of a handful of high-end specialty applications has mostly limited, unsophisticated, over priced software choices. OSX and Apple software can only run on brand of machine, Mac...that is the epitome of proprietrary, unsophisticated, unimaginative, simplistic software/hardware system. Whereas the vast number of choices for Windows and PCs is staggering. It really boils down to the expansive choices a PC offers or the simpleton Apple/Mac option. A real life with vast options or an iLife that Apple plans out for you.

Linux on the other hand does require a great deal of computer savvy, intelligence and inqiusitiveness. Linux users fall into two main categories: Those that like to endlessly tinker with the complexites of hardware and software interaction and never quite get their fill and those that are the former plus have a counterculture side to buck the system, no matter what the sysem may be!

Al :

Microsoft should look at GM because that's where they will be 10-15 years from now. Right now Ballmer is spewing the same false-bravado-masquerading- as-arrogant-bluster that GM was exhibiting in 80's. But since product cycles are shorter in tech, it won't take as long for MS to unravel.

Insignificant!

They are a flea upon our arse!

Kenneth H. Fleischer :

Microsoft doesn't advertise? News to me. Five nights a week, I see ads. for MS on TV. They don't persuade me, but I do see them. I never see Apple ads. on TV, though, and I've yet to see an ad. for any "flavor" of Linux on TV.

Microsoft is a great marketer, too. That's why persons who work for their less-competent competitors call MS "evil." Apple is hugely greater, though, and that's why it keeps on selling products, even ones that aren't particularly useful. Apple also is a design champion, so their products are attractive to lots of folks. Remember how many just had to have an iPhone? Who cares if it has nasty network problems, it's so cool! (Not to me, though. I don't want one.)

AngieK :

Several posters mentioned SteveB being out of touch. I can pretty much vouch for that. I left the company a while back but while there, I worked with GMs and VPs in preparation for various reviews. SLT, XLT, QBR, BillG, etc... Such reviews in the 90s were truly exciting and very useful because people were really open and honest (ok, blunt). Things were uncovered, problems tackled, stupidity euthanized. No so anymore with the turn of the century.

Directors, GMs and VPs are all focused on "lying consistently so the execs don't catch us when they ask different people the same questions". Months are spent preparing slides for a 2 hour review to ensure everybody says the same thing. Very creative ways are discovered to make bad news sound more palatable and good news is conjured up.

When not busy creating smoke for the execs, who don't ever talk to the MS guy on the street doing the real work anymore, they are focused on how to make themselves look better than the other group. There are only 2 goals: get more money than other groups and get the next job with higher pay/bigger title. This is the MBA crowd that kills engineering excellence.

I remember days when MS execs would make GMs and VPs shake in their boots, genuinely fearing they will lose their jobs. My last couple of years in MS was spent watching money wasted and leadership continuing to live in denial.

Brian :

I have to agree with Angie on some of her points about internal MSFT problems. I worked there for a number of years and saw some of the same challenges. However, all that said, I'm wondering what type of computer enthusiast is against any technology - OS or otherwise? That simply doesn't make sense. I like Windows (XP, Vista, 7 all running at home - and a Vista and a 7 at work). I like Mac (it's a nice toy and fun to play with at home). I like Linux (I'm using it on a couple more home machines). Technology enthusiasts should be happy there are so many options out there and that we're able to leverage them all. Same things for browsers, same thing for most technology. As for buying expensive computers and having that in any way make me want a Mac more - that's just not looking at the right options. My latest laptop was what I'd consider expensive, but the thing does everything I could dream of and then some. I hope we all find a way to explore outside of our comfort zones with technology and learn to enjoy the choices we have today.

JohnJ :

Apple's worldwide market share is still a miniscule 3%. According to both IDC and Gartner, Toshiba sells more computers than Apple.

Linux Client is a bigger threat, because it is preinstalled on some (10%?) netbooks, and netbooks are a big growth category.

BTW, I use Vista SP1 Preinstalled, and it works just fine.

my2cents :

my car is better than your car , my dad is bigger than your dad ... etc.

that sounds silly to me. to see those comments everytime.

at the end of the day:-
Microsoft makes the most money and has a balance sheet, that the Linux and apple crowds would like to have even it it's a fraction of it.

why they make the most money, is because people are still buying their products ,whether they are good or not. Why people are buying their products then ? that means they are providing a service that those people need and are somewhat happy with.


I like LInux, currently using Dillo browser and Puppy Linux to post this comment. I have ranted so many times on Linux forums, that they have to standardize. Too many linux distros, mean too many incompatiblities and that is killing them. linux distro 1 doesn 't work exactly like linux distro 2. People don't have the time to figure out every time where to look f or this configuration file in this distro v/s another distro. e.g system v versus bsd style, other smaller distros use their own way of doing things, it's crazy guys. It's like every can drive left or right on the streets.

many linux people say many choices are good. choice is good for whom? maybe for geeks only. the regular users want to have one excellent linux with one excellent application for each category. choice is costly to them in terms of time /energy /effort they have to waste to sort out what is good v/s what is bad. a lot of apps and distros get created and then abandoned at version 0.5, not even getting to a final release.

some distros suppor this hardware/device, others don't...
why don't they create a common group to come up with a universal hardware/device detection and support ?

the software available too is inferior , compare for example Gimp, Inkscape v/s Xarax or other windows graphics programs. The windows programs are better most of the time, and have superior graphics effect available with one click.

95% of computer users in the world are not geeks , and they form the mass of the market, all the products should be engineered with them in mind and that's how you are going to convert them to Linux.

they don't spend hours on their computers or the internet like geeks do, they want to do things fast and be done with it.

Windows' ecosystem is so well developed and organized, that it will take a very focused effort by the Linux community if they want to succeed. Today we have a balkanization of the linux community and I am predicting that Linux will never make it on the desktop, if they don't work together.

look at apache foundation, this is the kind of think we need for all linux apps/ devices detection etc....

Sorry for the long comment !

european_citizen :

Apple has got good products. however by trying to control both hardware and software they get stretched thin and that's what killed them back then. Now looks like they are making a comeback on smaller gadget. .

Microsoft on the other hand chose to focus only on software and left the hardware to the likes of Intel, IBM and that paid off and windows won the PC battle that way.

Clown :

Steve Jobs will not rise from the dead 3 days after he passes on from his mortal husk...

You can't possibly know that!! Zombie Steve will rule the tech universe!!!

Hah :

@Vanfruniken:

You're joking, right? If you think "software quality/reliability" matters in the Linux world, you've obviously never used a Linux desktop.

Linux is the realm of BSoDs now, and Windows is more stable than ever.

With every release of Ubuntu, another feature breaks that worked fine in the past, and you'll have to wait another 6 months for it to be fixed (at which time something else will inevitably break...)

Servers are rock-solid, yes, but for desktop systems, "stable Linux" is just a myth.

Liberty or Death :

As long as Microsoft and Apple believe that they can takeover my desktop when ever they want, install software without my knowledge, employ anti-competitive practices, stifle any technology they find threatening, file hundreds of lawsuits a year and charge exorbitant prices for the right to use their software, I will stick to freedom and all of its warts-thank you very much.

Any company (MSFT) that can't even adhere to w3c coding standards is very, very dangerous. They will never get any of my money.

So go ahead sheep, keep supporting anti-competitive giants and spending your hard earned money.

I will stick to software that is written with passion and belief in a cause.

Chips B. Malroy :

Nice article Joe.

It always comes down to this, the figures for NetApplications on desktop OS market share. They are terribly skewed figures, a fact even they state.

Quoting Joe Wilcox:
“Steve (Balmer) has a surprising view of the computing universe to put Linux before Apple.”

from: Microsoft CEO Scoffs at Mac Share Gains blogs.eweek.com/applewatch/content/macbook/microsoft_ceo_scoffs_at_mac_share_gains.html
So Steve Balmer is more concerned about Linux than Mac. The question has to be asked why? If NetApplications data is correct, Linux with appox 1% and Mac with appox 10% would make Mac the real competitor to M$ on the desktop.

Obviously, either Balmer is deluded, or the NetApplications figure are way off. Or could it be, that both are right?
First a little background on NetApplications from Roy Schestowitz of Boycott Novell fame:

groups.google.com/group/comp.os.linux.advocacy/msg/c3d6b824936590d6

Roy Schestowitz wrote:
“> Why is Net Applications (Hitslink) changing its browser stats after publishing
> them?
> http://my.opera.com/haavard/blog/2008/09/04/why-is-net-applications-h...
> Hmmmmm...
> Let's see...
> Microsoft (and Apple) money on their table with results that satisfy both.
> Might logs from Apple.com explain the Hackintosh share?
> One of the executives used to work for Microsoft.
> Net Applications uses a Microsoft stack for hosting.
> Net Applications does not count traffic.
> Net Applications admits its stats are flawed.
> Net Applications keeps its methods secret.
> But hey! hey produce charts!! Therefore it must be true. “
But lets see if we can backward engine the figures that NetApplications puts out to be correct. First of all, NetApplication claims to use many many sites world wide. But gives no breakdown of those sites. I suggest, that the vast majority of those reporting sites, are in the USA. Secondly, I suggust that NetApps uses, and or has an agreement with its main two biggest customers (M$ and Apple) to use their sites as well to report OS market share. It stands to reason that if you use sites owned by Micro$oft and Apple, that their OS will be higher in the charts. It also stands to reason, that Apple sells the majority of its brand in the USA and Canada. A Ten percent market share for Mac in the USA is well within reason. Also, Linux has very little penetration in countries such as the USA and the United Kingdom compared to the rest fo the world.
This is how NetApplications is skewing the OS market share, and reporting figures that are vastly incorrect. Linux market share is most most likely higher than that of Mac, if you do not believe that, then read again the statement of Steve Balmer, who views Linux as more of a problem than Mac. But then again, I would state that the USA market, as Mature as it is, is where the money is at for both Apple and M$.

RJB :

"With every release of Ubuntu, another feature breaks that worked fine in the past, and you'll have to wait another 6 months for it to be fixed (at which time something else will inevitably break...)"

The assertion that Linux is unstable for a desktop is very hard to measure. I have a very stable Debian desktop environment while all my co-workers have very stable WinXP Desktop environments. I use Debian Stable and things don't break due to upgrades...I'll leave that to Debian Sid and Debian Testing. I actually had more fiddling to do with each office computer upgrading to XP SP3 than I have had from Debian updates.

At the same time, Windows' stability also does not rely entirely on Microsoft, and mileage can vary. My mom has a Vista laptop. She's been through a complete OS re-install because Vista broke. My cousin has had no such troubles with his Vista computer. Invariably they each had different software installed and different features and "gadgets" enabled.

Either way, I don't think there's an easy way to compare stability between "Linux" and "Windows" when it is so hard to compare Windows and Windows or Linux and Linux. Most of what us users term "bugs" or "unstable" are configuration issues that aren't necessarily flaws inherent to the OS (whether it be MS, Mac, or Lin). It would take extensive benchmark and configuration testing to make a meaningful statement about comparative stability.

If Dell or other OEM's were to invest the same dollars and effort into supporting a given Linux distribution as they do Windows, I think the end user would be just as happy with the end product. Have you ever tried to deal with hardware and drivers from a fresh OEM install of Windows? This is what Dell, Toshiba, HP, etc. do with a computer before it ships to you. They do all the things that average user doesn't understand so when you get it, it works out of the box.

I prefer Linux. I like to tinker and customize my desktop. I have a desktop behavior and appearance that no Windows user could ever have. I could even make it look and behave much like Windows if that was something I wanted to accomplish. I am also a geek, so the seemingly unlimited supply of *NIX command line tools and scripting capabilities make it lovely to use. I also love it that the abominable words "McAfee" and "Symantec" are nowhere to be found on my computer along with all the AOL and MSN garbage that ships with the average OEM computer.

David A :

Balmer is quite right, that advertising wouldn't help.

Very many people doesn't know what an OS is. That is Microsoft's biggest advantage. Advertising may make people begin to realize that there are alternatives.

Gabe :

Roddog, you're the quintessential MS fanboi i love to hate.. The bottom line is that with any product or service, the tinkering should be an option, not a requirement. You are correct in your estimation of what gets PC users off - the thrill of the successful troubleshoot. You vastly underestimated the other side of the equation: we Mac users are folks who just need to get work done, don't have the time or IT dollars to constantly fix the litany of problems inherent to a crappy OS like Windows. And yeah, with Apple I don't have the option of buying the cheapest parts from Southeast Asia and farther afield, throwing them together in my own "custom" box (read: the case is plastic molded in an inane imitation of Alienware bought off the rack at Best Buy) and hoping all the disparate parts work together properly with an OS that may or may not address the components properly let alone have the drivers built in.. Wow I'm soooo jealous of those that have that experience.

YOUR MOM LOVES LINUX.


and so does bill gates' mom.

Greetings all members,

I would just like to say hello and let you know that I'm happy to be a member - been a lurker long enough :)

Hope to contribute some and gain some knowledge along the way....

nucco :

thank you all commenters, for giving me such a good laugh. I never thought I'd find the comments interesting enough to read, but here I am at the end of it all.

Anyway, here goes the mandatory rant: I use linux on my PC, use Symbian on my fabulous (because I love it) Nokia phone and recommend a Mac for my friends who have grown sick and tired of fixing malware and other issues with windows, unless I am convinced that they are savvy enough to handle linux, in which case i recommend Ubuntu. Heck, I have friends who will not type in their credit card details on a windows machine simply because they think it (the machine) can't be trusted (I kid you not).

I also know people who don't know what an OS is, and assume that all computers on this earth run some variant of MS Windows. I was there once :), I'm glad I saw the light: CHOICE RULES.

Frank :

To Philip

I know of a white box maker who makes a good living installing Linux on new commercial laptops for various businesses.

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