It's Official: New MacBooks on Oct.14
News Analysis. Today, Apple sent out news media invitations for a product launch coming next week. Tagline: "The spotlight turns to notebooks." |
There has been plenty of buzz over the last few weeks about new Mac notebooks. The Oct. 14 event date has been rumored for about a month. There has been talk of a new "Brick" laptop manufacturing process. Yesterday, photos started circulating of alleged new MacBook Pro enclosures. This morning, AppleInsider insisted that they're the "real deal."
The October event marks a potential shift for Apple Mac product emphasis. For the last several years, Apple has launched new products for the holiday around this same time, but desktops. Looks like Apple will instead launch new MacBooks instead of new iMacs for the holidays.
The priority change makes sense. During Apple's fiscal 2008 third quarter, portables accounted for the largest portion—$2.237 billion—of the $7.464 billion in revenue. The company shipped 1.55 million notebooks, compared with 943,000 desktops, the latter of which generated $1.373 billion in sales.
Desktops are on the way out—a slow by steady decline—as analysts also observe. IDC expects worldwide portable shipments to reach 148.2 million units this year. Worldwide year-over-year growth rate is expected to be 37.2 percent and a staggering 44.7 percent outside the United States.
As I reported a few weeks ago, Apple notebooks have made stunning gains at U.S. retail. Mac notebook revenues grew by 30 percent compared with 1.5 percent for Windows laptops. Unit growth was higher, too, 35 percent compared with 10 percent. That said, Windows portables are growing off a larger base than are Mac notebooks.
Looked at another way, one in five notebooks sold at retail was a Mac. One in three dollars spent on laptops was for a Mac.
The big question overshadowing the new notebooks is price. Will Apple push below $1,000? Windows laptop average selling prices dropped to $694 in July and August from $700 in June, according to NPD. Mac notebook ASPs were $1,471 during the two summer months, compared with $1,515 in June; in June 2007, they were $1,588. Can Apple maintain these ASPs with a recession likely to sap holiday sales?
I say maybe yes, because Mac notebooks aren't Windows PCs. Most U.S. households with a computer have a Windows PC; the next purchase is a second or third computer. The move to a Mac portable would be to something new, something different. There is huge cache associated with the Apple brand, too. There are reasons why higher ASPs could still work, but I see huge risk to such a strategy. If people don't buy, holiday 2008 could bring earnings and inventory hardships to Apple in 2009.
The $1,000 question isn't one I would want to answer with a retail strategy commitment. Yesterday, there were rumors of an $800 MacBook. To Apple's head honchos, good luck pricing right. Unless there's another Time Machine that's the real deal, you've got tough, uncertain decisions to make about what people will buy and how much they're willing to pay in uncertain economic times.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com.]
Comments (7)
I remember you going bongos over Apples $1,000 or more pricing on their computers. Now that Apple might be introducing $800 most of your assumptions about the Company are nothing but that, 'assumptions'. Apple is just like any other PC company, yes they do charge premiums, but they are just as vulnerable in this turbulent economic weather. I definitely believe the $800 notebook is coming, sites such as AppleInsider and Macrumors have been on the ball a long time now, so expect it.
Trust me, the majority of Intel based Apple systems are running Windows, so trying to deny that is like saying Microsoft does not exist.
Posted by Andre Da Costa | October 9, 2008 1:34 PM
Andre Da Costa wrote: "I remember you going bongos over Apples $1,000 or more pricing on their computers."
Bongos, Andre?
What do you mean? If Apple goes sub-$1,000, it would be for an entry-level notebook. Steve Jobs' "one more thing" will cost much more. Like MacBook Air.
Joe
Posted by Joe | October 9, 2008 2:05 PM
Apple made mention of aggressive price points that would affect their bottom line in their last conference call. I know the assumption was cheaper iPods based on the timing. If Apple's planned timing for notebooks was off, however, perhaps the computers coming Oct. 14 will be inexpensive enough to boost growth rates even more.
Posted by Kawika Holbrook | October 9, 2008 2:22 PM
Joe, you made two post, one here at Apple Watch and the other at Microsoft-Watch.com about how Apple makes more than their PC counterpart because they do not have a sub 1,000 notebook or desktop. You were coming to all conclusions that this is why Apple is more lucrative because they charge a premium on their systems compared to Dell, HP and Lenovo who sell notebooks in the $400 to $600 price range. But I notice you change your tone now that Apple has gone under $1,000 or is likely to. You still defend them as still being safe in terms of revenue because of this pricing strategy. Its obvious Apple is feeling the effects of charging more than PC manufacturers, their Windows based competitors are actually undercutting them. People are actually choosing price and functionality over aesthetics (Apple).
Posted by Andre Da Costa | October 9, 2008 2:52 PM
Andre Da Costa wrote: "Joe, you made two post, one here at Apple Watch and the other at Microsoft-Watch.com about how Apple makes more than their PC counterpart because they do not have a sub 1,000 notebook or desktop. You were coming to all conclusions that this is why Apple is more lucrative...you change your tone now that Apple has gone under $1,000 or is likely to."
Say what, Andre?
I suggest you reread both posts. Because that's not what I wrote at all. Quite the opposite, I questioned Apple's strategy of selling too high in a market wanting to pay low. The title should say it all: "Apple Demands a High Price to Be Cool."
I did write: "No matter what the next MacBooks look like, their prices are likely to stay about the same--unless this is the margin-sucking product transition Apple executives warned about in July." Then I went on to repeatedly impale Apple's higher pricing strategy. I wrote: "Apple got it right with Air that small is in. But consumers and even some businesses want something more--or is that less: Small and cheap."
And: "Windows PCs are getting cooler and smarter looking, and it's a growing trend...How much longer will people pay for Apple cool, when they can get a Windows computer that is cool enough, looks good enough and costs lots less?"
What's unclear about that?
Joe
Posted by Joe | October 9, 2008 4:44 PM
Roughly, Apple laptops costs about three times as much as Wintel laptops for roughly the same configuration. A below $1000 laptop means
1. heavy profit cuts.
2. low end configuration
Posted by nitroxn | October 10, 2008 1:44 PM
Andre da costa ....vc sabe alguma ..coisa ...sobre os novos ..precos ...e se esses rumores sao quase ...100% de verdade ou nao ...se vc souber algo ...
eu agradeco ...
thanx!!!
Posted by Guilherme valentim | October 11, 2008 2:13 PM