Smartphone Buyers Switch Carriers for iPhone
News Brief. NPD says that 30 percent of people buying new iPhones switched from another carrier. Really? It's not more? |
NPD cited the figure for U.S. iPhone 3G sales between June and August. Huh? Apple didn't release the iPhone 3G until July 11, so how does the data apply from June 1 to July 10? These are the mysteries of analysis. I sent a direct tweet to NPD analyst Ross Rubin earlier today. Next time, I'll use e-mail. He didn't respond.
My only surprise is that the number of switchers isn't greater. On July 11 and several weeks afterward, I casually polled people waiting to buy the iPhone 3G about their carriers. Consistently, two-thirds or more of the people were switching from another carrier, most typically Verizon.
There's another reason the number seems low to me. NPD identified a churn rate—or carrier switching—of 23 percent between June and August. No surprise to me from my informal polling of iPhone users: 47 percent of switchers came from Verizon. Another 24 percent came from T-Mobile and 19 percent from Sprint. Me wonders: Did the Samsung Instinct work for Sprint? The phone was released a few weeks before the iPhone and for $70 less.
"The launch of the lower-priced iPhone 3G was a boon to overall consumer smartphone sales," Ross said in a statement. The mobile's lower starting pricing ($199) and that for competing smartphones drove down average selling prices. NPD reported that smartphone ASPs fell 26 percent year over year to $174 from $236.
For the first five months of the year, the iPhone accounted for 11 percent of the consumer smartphone market, rising to 17 percent through August. In its press release, NPD used "consumer." Since I couldn't reach Ross for more information or for a copy of the report, I can't say what were iPhone sales to businesses.
NPD released a list of best-selling smartphones, but no percentage of market share data. Rank, based on unit sales:
- iPhone 3G
- BlackBerry Curve
- BlackBerry Pearl
- Palm Centro
What I want to know: Where would the BlackBerry rank if Curve, Pearl and other models were combined? I wouldn't be surprised if their combined market share would be higher than the iPhone. Simple reason: distribution. The BlackBerry is available through all major U.S. carriers, while the iPhone 3G is confined to AT&T.
Clearly, the iPhone 3G is off to a great start; more on that in the next post.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at gmail.com.]
