iPhone Tech Talk Answers Android

I'm not sure this tour is new, considering that the New York event already was full when I started writing (Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco have filled up since). But several other blogs had the item this morning—I saw it first on AppleInsider—and Apple's timing is worth my blogging it.

GOT A TIP OR RUMOR?

Apple's iPhone Tech Talk World Tour will go to 24 cities—six in Asia Pacific, 10 in Europe, two in India and eight in North America—between Oct. 22 and Dec. 8. T-Mobile launches the G1, or Google phone, on Oct. 22. Something else: Apple expects to have iPhones in more than 70 countries by year's end, which is another good reason to do the tour now.

But the G1 and other forthcoming Android-based phones are reason enough for Apple to more aggressively woo developers to its platform. Any platform's success is predicated on applications and broad third-party support. Apple has an early lead because of its decidedly platform approach, and App Store is a compelling mobile application distribution platform.

From a developer perspective, Android poses the most daring competitive threat to the iPhone platform, because it's:

• From Google—a larger rival, with strong brand affinity
• Open source—with the long-term promise of better developer tools and expanded development community
• A competing application distribution platform—and because of open source it carries the promise of freer, more flexible development
• One cure for some iPhone App Store shortcomings—and relief from Apple's tighter controls over application development, such as arbitrary app rejection

But Android is the future, while iPhone 3G is the present. Google has one carrier, one device and one country of distribution. Apple has the iPhone 3G in more than 50 countries and already may have sold 10 million devices. Something else: Platforms need applications to succeed. All platforms without compelling applications fail. If Apple can win over enough developers, bring enough applications to iPhone, the platform can succeed, with Apple potentially gaining the kind of dominance in cell phones it has with portable music players. Developers are the key to success.

That said, in mobile, Google has incentive that Apple doesn't, particularly as macroeconomic concerns and plunging share prices pressure the core search business. Mobile is the future of search, and Google understands this. Google could quite dramatically transform its search business, ascending to a new level of profitability, by delivering relevant mobile search wrapped with contextual advertising and even direct advertising on cell phones.

According to ComScore M:Metrics, in June 2008, mobile search had increased 68 percent in the United States year over year and 38 percent in Europe. Among U.S. mobile subscribers, 20.8 million used mobile search; 4.5 million on the continent. In June 2007, just 5.8 percent of American subscribers used mobile search.

Google's mobile search market share already is 60 percent, worldwide, according to ComScore M:Metrics. Google is the default provider for Mobile Safari, as it will be for the G1. Google wants mobile. The company needs that business if it wants to grow. Mobile devices, particularly the cell phone, will replace the PC as the dominant informational platform. It's inevitable.

There's irony in Apple nourishing the hand that it should bite. The more iPhones that Apple sells, the more benefit to Google because of bundled search and maps.

[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at live.com.]

Posted by Joe Wilcox on October 9, 2008 1:31 PM